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It’s Official. The GOP Race Is Now A Train Wreck

Posted by Christian on Feb 8th, 2012 in News, Politics | 0 comments

With the results last night, even though they were non-binding, the GOP finds itself in chaos. Santorum obviously has the momentum heading into the next two big primaries in Michigan and in my home state of Arizona, on February 28th. Most of the news media are already spinning the results as not about Santorum’s viability but as Romney’s vulnerability. Honestly, there’s a hint of truth in that.

The Romney campaign didn’t spend a bunch of money the three states because they were non-binding, meaning no delegates were going to be automatically awarded. Yet, even so, he got clobbered. This indicates that Romney’s strength lies solely in the size of his checkbook.

What does this mean for the upcoming primaries? Good question. Although I still believe Romney will be the 2012 GOP nominee, I don’t believe that the road will be as easy as it once looked and that the nomination possibly won’t be decided until the race is within spitting distance of the convention in August. Even the folks over at Tea Party Nation are wondering “Where the sweet meteor of death” is. Yes, that was the subject of their email this morning.

For conservatives, it is time for a change in thinking. For many of us who has written off the idea of a brokered convention, we now need to rethink that. The GOP base is not excited about any of the candidates, especially Romney. We need an alternative. The only way we are going to get one is through a brokered convention. We need to deny Romney the votes he needs to win and then we need to decide on someone who can excite the base.

Just a cursory glance at the polling data through Super Tuesday, which currently doesn’t reflect the impact of last night, shows that although Romney is predicted to pick up most of the states, his lead in some of them is beginning to evaporate. Perhaps that’s due to recent polling that showed, by an almost 2-1 margin, as voters find out more about Romney the more they don’t like him. Polling showed that Romney would win Colorado by 10%, he lost by 5%, and Santorum would win Minnesota by 9%, and he more than doubled that last night.

Then there’s this little bit from the AZ GOP winter meeting that went pretty much unreported:

One other stark result from Saturday’s meeting: Congressman Ron Paul‘s name drew massive support in a presidential straw poll that served as a fundraiser for the party.

Paul scored 256 votes to 20 for Newt Gingrich, 17 for Mitt Romney and 8 for sweater-boy Rick Santorum.

Yes, Ron Paul dominated the straw poll. That speaks right to the heart of Arizona conservatism which, despite claims otherwise, truly is a far right, utopalibertarian flavor of conservatism.

I fully expect that over the next three weeks we will get pummeled with advertising about immigration, sovereignty, and state’s rights. SB1070 and the DoJ lawsuit are sure to be the number one commercial subject matter.

I really am not sure how the next two races will come out. Romney’s polling leads are 10% in Michigan and 28% in Arizona. I fully expect those to tighten up and think, due to his strength in swing states, that Santorum has a decent possibility of winning Michigan.

Here in Arizona, it will all hinge on who can be the most anti-immigrant. That’s the base of the AZ GOP, where the cancer of nativism and xenophobia has metastasized to the point where Arizona legislators are seriously suggesting that Western European values and culture (read: white folk) be primary and that the state should have a holiday celebrating white people.

If Romney wins Arizona, it won’t be by much. The only thing that may save him is the LDS population. That may be just enough to outduel the utopian federalist view that most AZ Republicans have…. and even that’s not a guarantee.

So, Republicans, buckle up. This race just got interesting.